The stabilizing effect of social distancing: Cross-country differences in financial market response to COVID-19 pandemic policies.

COVID-19 has had far-reaching global effects on the health and wellbeing of individuals on every continent. The economic and financial market response has been equally disastrous with high levels of volatility observed. This study explores the temporal relations between structural breaks, market volatility and government stay-at-home policy interventions and social distancing measures for 28 countries and their respective indices. We present results which indicate the establishment of stay-at-home policies influence sharp discontinuities in 15 of 28 markets (53.57 %) and increase market efficiency in 30 of 49 cases observed (61.22 %). These results indicate a small, statistically significant degree of stabilization in international financial markets responding to government stay-at-home policies and social distancing measures, a promising result for political actors concerned with economic performance during the public health response to the coronavirus 2019 pandemic.

How does globalization affect COVID-19 responses?

BACKGROUND: The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted the vast differences in approaches to the control and containment of coronavirus across the world and has demonstrated the varied success of such approaches in minimizing the transmission of coronavirus. While previous studies have demonstrated high predictive power of incorporating air travel data and governmental policy responses in global disease transmission modelling, factors influencing the decision to implement travel and border restriction policies have attracted relatively less attention. This paper examines the role of globalization on the pace of adoption of international travel-related non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) during the coronavirus pandemic. This study aims to offer advice on how to improve the global planning, preparation, and coordination of actions and policy responses during future infectious disease outbreaks with empirical evidence. METHODS AND DATA: We analyzed data on international travel restrictions in response to COVID-19 of 185 countries from January to October 2020. We applied time-to-event analysis to examine the relationship between globalization and the timing of travel restrictions implementation. RESULTS: The results of our survival analysis suggest that, in general, more globalized countries, accounting for the country-specific timing of the virus outbreak and other factors, are more likely to adopt international travel restrictions policies. However, countries with high government effectiveness and globalization were more cautious in implementing travel restrictions, particularly if through formal political and trade policy integration. This finding is supported by a placebo analysis of domestic NPIs, where such a relationship is absent. Additionally, we find that globalized countries with high state capacity are more likely to have higher numbers of confirmed cases by the time a first restriction policy measure was taken. CONCLUSIONS: The findings highlight the dynamic relationship between globalization and protectionism when governments respond to significant global events such as a public health crisis. We suggest that the observed caution of policy implementation by countries with high government efficiency and globalization is a by-product of commitment to existing trade agreements, a greater desire to 'learn from others' and also perhaps of 'confidence' in a government's ability to deal with a pandemic through its health system and state capacity. Our results suggest further research is warranted to explore whether global infectious disease forecasting could be improved by including the globalization index and in particular, the de jure economic and political, and de facto social dimensions of globalization, while accounting for the mediating role of government effectiveness. By acting as proxies for a countries' likelihood and speed of implementation for international travel restriction policies, such measures may predict the likely time delays in disease emergence and transmission across national borders.

A systematic approach to public health - Novel application of the human factors analysis and classification system to public health and COVID-19.

In this article, we argue for a novel adaptation of the Human Factors Analysis and Classification System (HFACS) to proactive incidence prevention in the public health and in particular, during and in response to COVID-19. HFACS is a framework of causal categories of human errors typically applied for systematic retrospective incident analysis in high-risk domains. By leveraging this approach proactively, appropriate, and targeted measures can be quickly identified and established to mitigate potential errors at different levels within the public health system (from tertiary and secondary healthcare workers to primary public health officials, regulators, and policymakers).